Naím
The Tunisian was the Revolution of Wikileaks and Egypt was the Facebook revolution. Thanks to Wikileaks, Tunisians learned the cable where the U.S. ambassador revealed the extraordinary corruption of the dictator and his family. In Egypt, young people were tired of Hosni Mubarak and his regime who met and organized over the Internet. Facebook and Twitter made it possible, finally, the people took to the streets. The rest is history.
Not really. This was not, nor is history. This incomplete view of what happened there does not help to understand the Arab tide and its possible evolution from here on out. There
doubt that social networks, especially Facebook and messages through Twitter, or Wikileaks leaks have something to do with the popular uprisings in the Arab world. Something. But explain what happened in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya primarily in terms of the impact that there have been new information technologies is an exaggeration.
This perspective does not explain, for example, why Libya, a country with a very low Internet penetration (about 350,000 users in a population of over six million) or Yemen, with even lower rates have been among countries rattled by popular uprisings. One of the surprises street protests in Egypt has been its social, religious, generational and regional levels. And while in Egypt there are proportionally more Internet users than the rest of the region, it appears that a significant percentage of those who participated in the riots do not have a Facebook account and tweeting, most likely not even use the Internet regularly.
course, once it emerges a group of leaders coordinated by the Internet and able to mobilize a larger number of followers, many others who share your needs and desires for change are joined, having heard through channels other than Internet. Here, the most important phrase is "sharing their needs and desires of change. "widespread frustration is this product of decades of poor economic policies, combined with extensive corruption, growing inequality and a wide despair, creating the motivation to take the seats. and see on television in other countries this gives results and the people on the street manages to topple a dictator who until recently was untouchable is also a powerful mobilizing force. And here the Arabic news channels arriving via satellite have been a force more powerful than the Internet.
But perhaps most important is that the fascination with the role of new technologies in the political changes in the world Arabic has overshadowed the importance of all this has had an old technology: guns. The Armed Forces' role in what happened in Tunisia and Egypt have been equally or more decisive than Facebook. In these countries, the military took their support for dictators, and these have no choice but to leave. Initially it was the Facebook groups who called on Egyptians to Tahrir Square, was the army that made it possible for the square was transformed into the place where families could go without fear to protest the regime. Fortunately, the Egyptian military had no genocidal tendency of some of his fellow Libyans. In Libya, the Armed Forces have fragmented and mercenary units and Gaddafi have been willing to liquidate its opponents. Other soldiers are fighting alongside the people. If the military had not been divided and all orders had been complied with Gaddafi "killed like rats" who are protesting in the streets, the future of the Libyan regime would not be in doubt.
As I have written in other columns, in the end that define when and how he dies is the military dictatorship. And what has to do with all this Internet? Much less than what we are reading and hearing in the news these days.
Recognizing this fact helps to better discern the political future of the stricken countries by these revolts. In Egypt, for example, unless popular pressure to continue, forcing the military to accept deeper reforms, the revolution will only be used to replace a small corrupt elite for another. The Egyptian military is an important economic factor and make huge profits from the bad policies that have thousands of young Egyptians without jobs and no future. And remove the privileges the military establishment certainly require much more than set up a Facebook page or report on Twitter.
mnaim@elpais.es
Davis and Dean Factor